[매크로] BlackRock 블랙록이 바라보는 2023년 투자시장

[매크로] BlackRock 블랙록이 바라보는 2023년 투자시장

• 블랙록에서 2023년 투자시장 전망에 관한 리포트를 발간하였습니다. 이번 포스팅에서는 블랙록이 눈여겨보고 있는 핵심 주제들에 대해 소개해 보도록 하겠습니다.
  <Source: BlackRock Investment Institute> 

 

목차

1. 2023 Playbook
   
   • Tactical Views
   • Strategic views
2. New regime
   • Theme 1 - Pricing the damage
   • Theme 2 - Rethinking Bonds
   • Theme 3 - Living with Inflation
3. Regime drivers
   • Aging workforces
   • A new world order
   • Faster transition
4. Private Markets - The long view on infrastructure
5. Directional view - Getting granular

 

 

1. 2023 Playbook

New playbook <Source: BlackRock Investment Institute>

 

a) Tactical views - A new playbook

• 2023 = RISK-OFF with a preference for income over equities and long-term bonds.
• Expecting more volatile views than the past

U.S. Treasury yiels, Short over Long <Source: BlackRock Investment Institute>

 

b) Strategic views - A new strategic approach

• Portfolios need to be more dynamic.
• Inappropriate asset mix can be even more costly.

Asset mix matters more in new regime. <Source: BlackRock Investment Institute>

 

2. New regime

• A deep recession is inevitable in order to tame inflation since central banks cannot solve production constraints, which are fueling inflation and macro volatility. 

Taming inflation would take deep recession. <Source: BlackRock Investment Institute>

 

a) Theme 1 - Pricing the damage

• Equties are not fully priced in for recession.
• Assessment of the market's risk sentiment or how much economic damage is in the price should follow by.

U.S. New home sales during policy rate tightening cycles, 1972-2022 <Source: BlackRock Investment Institute>

 

b) Theme 2 - Rethinking Bonds

• Negative correlation of stock & bond has broken down in new regime.
• Prefer short-term bonds and high-grade credit.

Correlation of U.S. equities and government bond returns <Source: BlackRock Investment Institute>

 

c) Theme 3 - Living with Inflation

• Long-term drivers of the new regime will keep inflation persistently higher.

Wishful thinking on inflation <Source: BlackRock Investment Institute>

 

3. Regime drivers

a) Aging workforces

• Aging workforces are negative for ecnomic growth.
• Production capacity will grow less quickly in the future as an ever-larger share of the population is past retirement age and not working.

A workforce not covered. <Source: BlackRock Investment Institute>

 

b) A new world order

• Most fraught geopolitical environment since WW2
• The world is splitting up into competing blocs that pursue self-reliance.

Geopolitical risk grabs market attention. <Source: BlackRock Investment Institute>

 

c) Faster transition

• Global investment in the net-zero transition is set to step up notably in coming years with key policy actions.

Policy helping accelerate the transition <Source: BlackRock Investment Institute>

 

4. Private Markets - The long view on infrastructure

• infrastructure could provide a way to play into structural trends. 

Infrastructure investment, 2007-2040 <Source: BlackRock Investment Institute>

 

5. Directional view - Getting granular

Strategic and tactical views <Source: BlackRock Investment Institute> 

 

※ 보고서 원본은 아래에서 확인 가능합니다.

2023 Global Investment Outlook | BlackRock Investment Institute