JRFO Investing Daily Recap

인베스팅 데일리 리캡 INVESTING DAILY RECAP - 10/20/2022

FOR PERSONAL RECORDS

• S&P 500 -0.80% Dow Jones -0.30% Nasdaq -0.61% Euro Stoxx +0.62%
• DXY -0.05% EXY +0.15% JXY -0.18% GBP -0.02% WON -0.06% 1429.04 CNY -0.21% 7.2129
• US02Y +1.12% 4.612 US10Y +2.27% 4.232 US30Y +2.28% 4.220
• WTI Crude -0.98% Natural Gas -1.71% Gold -0.10% BTCUSD -0.46%
• 3대 지수 하락 마감. 미 국채금리 계속 상승중. 주간 실업보험 청구자 수 감소로 긴축 우려 심화

<Source: Tradingview>

<Source: Charles Schwab, Bloomberg as of 10/20/2022>

 

[투자 메모] Data & Gloomy Economy Outlook

 

1) US Initial Jobless Claims 

• 214k vs. 233k est. & 226k in prior week; continuing claims at 1.385M vs. 1.378M est. & 1.364M in prior week

US Initial Jobless Claims <Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Charles Schwab> 

 

2) Profitable Tech Index from Goldman Sachs

• up 14% vs. 86% for S&P 500

Profitable Tech Index from Goldman Sachs <Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.>

 

3) S&P 500 Financials sector FWD.EPS

- Getting slow, close to peak

S&P 500 Financials sector FWD.EPS <Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.>

 

4) US Zillow Rent Index 

• Rose by just 0.5% in September, smallest gain since February 2021
• Positive for lower CPI

US Zillow Rent Index <Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.>

 

5) Mortgage Applications Index

• Lowest level since 1997

Mortgage Applications Index <Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.>

 

6) 09/2022 Existing Home Sales 

• -1.5% vs. -2.1% est. & -0.8% M-1
• 8 consecutive months of declining sales (longest stretch since 2007)
• Median selling price +8.4% y/y to $384,800

09/2022 Existing Home Sales <Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.>

 

7) US Treasury International Capital Net Monthly Inflow

• Biggest spike since March 2020

US Treasury International Capital Net Monthly Inflow <Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.>

 

 

8) U.S. Recession Probability Model

• Probability U.S. enters recession within next 12 months
• 96% as of August, 2022

U.S. Recession Probability Model <Source: The Conference Board>

 

9) Philadelphia Fed Index

• -8.7 vs. -5 est. & -9.9 in prior month
• new orders jumped, employment rose to 28.5

Philadelphia Fed Index&nbsp;<Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.>

 

 

10) Fed Lift-off Attempts

Fed Lift-off Attempts <Source: Fidelity>

 

11) Financial Conditions

• Tightening fast
• SPX declines 30% over a year
• the dollar rises 15%
• high yield spreads widen 300 bps
• 2-year nominal yield increases 450 bps
• 10-year real yield increases 250 bps. 

Financial Conditions <Source: Fidelity>

 

12) The Fed & the Market

• Expected Terminal rate of 4.93% by early 2023
• 130 bps of easing over the subsequent two years

The Fed & the Market <Source: Fidelity>

 

13) Gold

• West → East

Gold <Source: Swiss Federal Customs Administration>