JRFO Investing Daily Recap

인베스팅 데일리 리캡 INVESTING DAILY RECAP - 10/19/2022

FOR PERSONAL RECORDS

• S&P 500 -0.67% Dow Jones -0.33% Nasdaq -0.85% Euro Stoxx +0.21%
• DXY +0.81% EXY -0.92% JXY -0.44% GBP -0.91% WON +0.69% 1433.95 CNY +0.39% 7.2280
• US02Y +2.84% 4.561 US10Y +3.17% 4.138 US30Y +2.43% 4.129
• WTI Crude +1.47% Natural Gas -4.32% Gold -1.39% BTCUSD -0.76%
• 에너지 섹터를 제외 모든 섹터 하락

<Source: Tradingview>

<Source: Charles Schwab, Bloomberg as of 10/18,19/2022>

 

[투자 메모] Housing, CPI related data keep coming

• 시장에 대한 객관적인 시각 유지하기

1. US Industiral Production

• YOY 기준 산업생산 견조한 흐름, 5.3% annual growth as of September

US Industrial Production YOY <Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.>

 

2. Manheim US Used Vehicle Value Index

• 중고차 지수 back to pre-pandemic level = 물가 상승 압력 하락

Manheim US Used Vehicle Value Index <Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.>

 

3. Supply Chain Stress

• back to pre-pandemic level (black line is average)
• 물가 안정 기대

Supply Chain Stress <Source: ARBOR>

 

4. Homebuilder Sentiment Index

• Back to pre-pandamic level = 주택시장의 악재 = 소비자물가지수 상승 압력 하락

Home Builder Sentiment Index <Source: Charles Schwab, Bloomberg, as of 10/18/2022>

 

5-1 Homebuilders' Sentiment about Future Sales

• Lowest level since 2012

5-2 MBA US Refinancing Index

• Lowest since August 2000

5-3 Housing Starts

• 09/2022.  -8.1% vs. -7.2% est. & +13.7% vs M-1
• Building permits +1.4% vs. -0.8% est. & -8.5% vs M-1

 <Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.>

 

6. UST

• 주요 미국채 금리 계속 상승중. 주요 구간: 4.5~5.0% 
• 10Y3M 금리차 올해 들어 최저구간, 곧 역전 예상. 아직 역전 X

<Source: Koyfin>