JRFO Investing Weekly Market Recap
Not a financial advice / Record, reference use only
1) 금리 YIELDS
2) 환율 FOREX
3) 원자재 COMMODITIES
4) 암호화폐 CRYPTO MARKET
5) 미국증시 U.S. STOCK MARKET
6) 요약 SUMMARY
1. Yields
- Fed claiming the rate to be above 5.00% but market reflecting recession due to over-tightening
- Next week, thus this month is critical moment for 2yr rate.
| RATE | 1W | |
| United States 2Y | 4.185% | -3.86% |
| United States 5Y | 3.628% | -3.87% |
| United States 10Y | 3.490% | -2.62% |
| United States 30Y | 3.546% | -0.51% |
Macro - Inflation losing steam
Macro - Inflation losing steam FFR vs US02Y vs US10Y 기준금리 vs 2년물, 10년물 Bottom line: December will be the last rate hike of this cycle. 12월이 마지막 금리인상 Base: 4.25~4.50% Bear: 4.75~5.00% , a couple of additional small rate hik
tortortor.tistory.com
1-1 Yield Conversion
| CONVERSION | |
| United States 10Y vs 3M | -0.713% |
| United States 10Y vs 2Y | -0.655% |
2. Forex
| TICKER | WEEKLY | TREND | |
| 달러 Dollar | DXY | ↘ | ↘ |
| 유로 Euro | EXY | ↗ | ↗ |
| 엔 Yen | JXY | = | =↗ |
| 위안 Yuan | USDCNY | ↘ | ↗ |
| 원 Won | USDKRW | ↘ | ↗ |
Macro - US Dollar, DXY
Macro - US Dollar, DXY Bottom line: Retracement is natural in cycle. Macro - Inflation losing steam Macro - Inflation losing steam FFR vs US02Y vs US10Y 기준금리 vs 2년물, 10년물 Bottom line: December will be the last rate hike of this cycle. 12월
tortortor.tistory.com
3. Commodities
| STRATEGY | 1W | YTD | |
| 원유 WTI | LONG | +4.19% | +1.59% |
| 천연가스 Natural Gas | SHORT | +2.87% | +57.98% |
| 금 Gold | LONG | -0.25% | -2.29% |
| 구리 Copper | SHORT | -2.21% | -15.40% |
4. Cryptocurrency Market
With Binance, Everything Is Not Fine
As the financial health of the exchange grows more uncertain, CEO Changpeng "CZ" Zhao has offered nothing but red flags, says Genevieve Roch-Decter (CFA), the CEO of GRIT Capital.
www.coindesk.com
5. U.S. Stock Market
| WEEKLY | |
| S&P 500 | -2.09% |
| Dow Jones Industrial | -1.66% |
| Nasdaq | -2.72% |
Souce by J.P.Morgan Asset Management
a) Week in Review
- Headline CPI rose 0.1% and Core CPI rose 0.2%
- Retail sales declined 0.6% after a 1.3% gain last month
- Manufacturing PMI declined to 46.2 from 47.7 in Nov
- New Target rate: 4.25-4.50%
b) Week Ahead
- PCE inflation
- Personal income and outlays
- Housing starts and new and existing home sales
6. Investing Weekly Summary
| CHECKLIST | STRATEGY | ||
| Risk | U.S. Stock Market | ↘ | BUY |
| Yield |
US 2Y | ↘ | BUY BOND |
| US 10Y | ↘ | ||
| Yield Conversion | 10Y3M: ↘ 10Y2Y: ↘ |
||
| Forex |
USD | ↘ | |
| Euro | ↗ | ||
| Yen | = | BUY EMERGING |
|
| Yuan | ↘ | ||
| Won | ↘ | ||
| Comm. | WTI Crude Oil | ↗ | |
| Natural Gas | ↗ | ||
| Gold | ↘ | BUY | |
| Copper | ↘ | BUY | |
| Crypto | Bitcoin | ↘ | BUY ACCUMULATION PERIOD |
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