주간증시요약 - JRFO Investing Weekly Market Recap
- 한 주간 투자시장에서 나타난 금리, 환율, 원자재, 암호화폐, 미국과 대한민국 증시의 움직임과 투자자로서 캐치해야 될 핵심 포인트들에 대해서 알아보고, 앞으로 가져가야 할 투자 전략에 대해서도 공유해 보도록 하겠습니다.
Not a financial advice / Record, reference use only
목차
- 금리 YIELDS
- 환율 FOREX
- 원자재 COMMODITIES
- 암호화폐 CRYPTO MARKET
- 미국 증시 U.S. STOCK MARKET
- 주간증시요약 SUMMARY
1. 미국채만기별 수익률 U.S. Yields
| RATE | 1W | |
| United States 2Y | 4.238% | -0.42% |
| United States 5Y | 3.614% | -2.35% |
| United States 10Y | 3.507% | -1.49% |
| United States 30Y | 3.612% | -2.06% |
TLT - Technical Analysis
TLT - iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF Technical Analysis 기술적 분석 Everything tends to unfold as it should. 흔들리는 것은 우리의 마음 뿐. It's all about Cycle.
tortortor.tistory.com
1-1 장단기금리차 Yield Conversion
| CONVERSION | |
| United States 10Y vs 3M | -1.122% |
| United States 10Y vs 2Y | -0.726% |
2. 환율 Forex
| TICKER | WEEKLY | TREND | |
| 달러 Dollar | DXY | ↘ | Bearish ↘ |
| 유로 Euro | EXY | ↗ | Bullish ↗ |
| 엔 Yen | JXY | ↗ | Bullish ↗ |
| 위안 Yuan | CNYUSD | ↗ | Bullish ↗ |
| 원 Won | KRWUSD | ↗ | Bullish ↗ |
Macro - US Dollar, DXY
Macro - US Dollar, DXY Bottom line: Retracement is natural in cycle. Macro - Inflation losing steam Macro - Inflation losing steam FFR vs US02Y vs US10Y 기준금리 vs 2년물, 10년물 Bottom line: December will be the last rate hike of this cycle. 12월
tortortor.tistory.com
10year Cycle - Developed vs Emerging
10-year Cycle - Developed vs Emerging Historically proven strategy Bottom line: 1982 ~ 1991 Emerging 1992 ~ 2001 Developed 2002 ~ 2011 Emerging 2012 ~ 2021 Developed 2022 ~ 2031 Emerging Smart Money Switching Strategy
tortortor.tistory.com
3. 원자재 Commodities
| STRATEGY | 1W | YTD | |
| 원유 WTI | LONG | +8.64% | -0.70% |
| 천연가스 Natural Gas | SHORT | -8.80% | -22.08% |
| 금 Gold | LONG | +2.93% | +5.32% |
| 구리 Copper | LONG | +7.55% | +10.74% |
Macro - Gold
Macro - Gold 금에 대한 시각차 금 GOLD 금은 인플레이션으로 물가가 상승하는 동안 떨어지는 현금(=달러)의 가치를 보관하는 유용한 수단이자 투자의 관점에서 포트폴리오에 일정 부분을 편입해서
tortortor.tistory.com
4. 가상자산 암호화폐 시장 Cryptocurrency Market
| HOLDINGS | |
| 비트코인 BTC | +23.57% |
| 이더 ETH | +21.32% |
| 솔라나 SOL | +70.83% |
| 폴리곤 MATIC | +23.34% |
BTC Technical Analysis
Very Close to the Bottom Trend is a friend until the end.
tortortor.tistory.com
5. 미국 증시 U.S. Stock Market
| WEEKLY | |
| S&P 500 | +2.67% |
| Dow Jones Industrial | +2.00% |
| Nasdaq | +4.82% |
| HOLDINGS | |
| 테슬라 TSLA | +8.26% |
| 아마존 AMZN | +13.99% |
| 메타 META | +5.35% |
| 버라이즌 VZ | -0.78% |
7. S&P 500 vs Nasdaq
S&P 500 vs Nasdaq PRINCIPLES Trend & Cycle Bottom Line: Valuation: S&P 500(SPX) < Nasdaq(IXIC) Risk vs Reward: S&P 500 has more downside risk while Nasdaq is close to bottom 1. Nasdaq 2. S&P 500
tortortor.tistory.com
8. DOW, NASDAQ, S&P 500 - Cycle +Elliott wave analylsis
8. DOW, NASDAQ, S&P 500: Cycle +Elliott wave analylsis Dow since 1897 Nasdaq since 1974 S&P 500 since 1872 Bottom line: Dow / Nasdaq > S&P 500 ONE LAST RALLY REMAINING 1. Dow Jones Industrial Average Index 2. Nasdaq Composite Index 3. S&P 500
tortortor.tistory.com
7. 주간증시요약 Investing Weekly Summary
| CHECKLIST | STRATEGY | ||
| Risk | U.S. Stock Market | ↗ | BUY |
| Yield |
US 2Y | ↘ | BUY CREDIT BOND |
| US 10Y | ↘ | ||
| Yield Conversion | 10Y3M: ↗ 10Y2Y: ↗ |
||
| Forex |
USD | ↘ | |
| Euro | ↗ | ||
| Yen | ↗ | BUY EMERGING |
|
| Yuan | ↗ | ||
| Won | ↗ | ||
| Comm. | WTI Crude Oil | ↗ | BUY |
| Natural Gas | ↘ | ||
| Gold | ↗ | BUY | |
| Copper | ↗ | BUY | |
| Crypto | Bitcoin | ↗ | BUY ACCUMULATION PERIOD |
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